GlobalData says a Biden presidency could be better for a U.S. tourism recovery.

The organization points to a slowdown of inbound tourism to the U.S. throughout President Donald Trump’s years in office, noting that since Trump’s win in 2016 there has been a 2.1-percentage-point slowdown in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of international tourism in the U.S.

This combined with the ongoing impact of COVID-19 does not provide the U.S. tourism sector with a great deal of optimism, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

“While causation cannot be proved, there is a correlation between President Trump’s first term and a slowdown in international visitation, which should increase apprehension in the US tourism sector in the current election regarding how swiftly recovery will be realized during and post-pandemic ,” said Ralph Hollister, travel and tourism analyst at GlobalData.

Hollister notes that the conditions in 2017 when Trump took office were ripe for growth.

“In 2017, global international tourist arrivals were growing at a rapid rate and the value of the US dollar was in decline,” he said. “These two factors should have meant near-record-breaking international tourism growth in 2017 and the following years – but this was not the case. According to GlobalData, from 2016 to 2019, international arrivals to the US increased at a sluggish compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1 percent). By way of comparison, from 2013 to 2016, they grew at a much higher CAGR of 3.1 percent.”

Global Data research shows how severely travel has been impacted in the U.S.

According to their data, international arrivals to the U.S. are now expected to see a staggering year-on-year decrease of 75 percent in 2020 largely due to COVID-19.

“There are several reasons why a second term for President Trump could prolong tourism recovery in the US, ranging from negative views on immigration policies to bans on individuals entering the U.S.,” said Hollister.

He noted that the recovery is hindered by several other aspects beyond the pandemic.

“A significant ongoing reason is the China-U.S. trade war,” Hollister said. “In recent years, the rapidly increasing spending power of Chinese travelers has put them at the front of many nations’ tourism strategies-given the large numbers of high-yield tourists. President Trump’s aggressive approach to China has impacted arrivals from this valuable source market. According to GlobalData, between 2013 and 2016, Chinese arrivals to the US grew at a rapid CAGR of 18.1 percent. From 2016 to 2019, arrivals dropped at a CARC of 2.5 percent.”

China will continue to be a central factor.

“This trend of Chinese arrivals gradually dropping could continue beyond the pandemic should President Trump’s strained relationship with China show no sign of improving during a potential second term.”